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Vigilance Isn't Dead

An interview with J.R. Nyquist

By T. Mann

TM: Mr. Nyquist, could you tell us something about origin and nature of the strategy that determines Moscow's actions on the way to the so called "Weltoktober" and the significance of the subversion of the West on the one hand and Russian military power on the other hand.

JRN: Moscow has a two-track approach. In the history of strategic theory we find two dialectically opposed conceptions of war. First, we have the Chinese theorist Sun Tzu, who said excellence in war consists in "winning without fighting," and we have Carl von Clausewitz who emphasized that winning without fighting is a dangerous idea because one must be prepared for a bloody battle. When Soviet strategic theory was revised in 1956-57 by a special committee of Russian planners, KGB Gen. Nikolai Mironov represented the Sun Tzu theory and Marshal V.D. Sokolovskiy represented the Clausewitz theory. The two were joined in a dialectical forward march -- a competitive interaction with one side of the dialectic advancing the agenda of the other. 

TM: Mr. Nyquist, primarily you examine the consequences of Russian strategy against the USA. How is the situation for Western Europe?

JRN: To understand the present situation it is helpful to review the past. In a 1998 conversation I had with Col. Stanislav Lunev, a leading GRU defector, I was given an ultra-simplified version of the 1980s Soviet war plan against NATO's position in Western Europe. According to Lunev, the First Strategic Echelon of the Warsaw Pact would drive over NATO's nuclear land mines and be destroyed. Then the Second Strategic Echelon would advance to exchange tactical nuclear blows with NATO forces. Then the Third Strategic Echelon would overrun Europe. The devastation of Central Europe in this plan would have been very great indeed. In fact, the existence of this plan and the psychological pressure it exerted on Europe resulted in a Russian peace offensive that has effectively disarmed and de-nuclearized Europe in a remarkable way, so that Russian strategists are near to their goal of bypassing Europe entirely in any future war with America. Only a few largely political obstacles remain for Moscow, and although these are proving to be quite stubborn, future maneuvers are sure to eventually place Europe in a position of genuine neutrality at the outset of the next great war. 

TM: But who is to say this neutrality can be preserved after America's destruction?

JRN: I believe that in any future war involving a Russian and Chinese cross-Pacific attack on America, in which Europe is carefully kept out, the resulting moral forces combined with economic distress will destroy Russia's credibility in Europe. It has to be understood that Russia's sophisticated combination strategy aims at America's destruction. Why fight twenty countries when you only have to destroy one or two countries to rule the world? 

TM: Which developments will the continuation of the soviet strategy bring in the next years, or which developments do you expect during the next years? 

JRN: It is important to remember that every action generates a reaction. There is great danger in Moscow's reliance on deception and disinformation. This is because the deceiver puts himself in the Devil's place, which is not without psychological and political consequences. However successful you are in deceiving the whole world for a decade or two, one day you must act contrary to everyone's expectations. When that happens Europe will realize that communism's collapse was a brilliant organizational contrivance, involving great failures but also significant successes upon which Moscow has built a new and better strategic position for itself. Already this realization is slowly dawning on intelligent observers in Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania (as well as other countries). 

Deception alone is not enough. Eventually people will understand what you've been up to. In this regard one finds Carl von Clausewitz to have been far deeper in his analysis than Sun Tzu. In my opinion the Russian objective is too ambitious, their maneuvers too elaborate and one day their moves will appear absolutely transparent. That's when the next great war in Europe will break out. I think we should look ahead to a period of crisis during the next several years. The exact date for a future violent breakdown is yet unknown, though I believe a decision for war was made in Moscow and Beijing some time prior to January 1998 and involves an Islamic Terrorist Phase, a Far East Military Phase and an "Economic Collapse Phase." These could be listed as sub-phases in the so-called "Final Phase" of the Soviet long range strategy as described by KGB defector Anatoliy Golitsyn. 

TM: I read that, several months ago British researcher Christopher Story asked Russian defector Viktor Suvorov what he thought of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Suvorov replied that the collapse was a fraud. Story asked if Suvorov’s contacts in British intelligence understood this. When Suvorov said they did not, Story asked why. “Because they’re stupid,” quipped the Russian defector. Mr. Nyquist, what do you think, how is it possible, that Western governments and the Western public don't understand today's dangerous situation even after Golitsyn and Sejna published their books and made the Soviet plan public?

JRN: First, hardly anyone read Golitsyn and Sejna's books. These books were dismissed without study or debate. More to the point, intelligence professionals did not read Golitsyn's book. In Dec. 1999 I addressed a group of retired intelligence officers in Texas. Col. Robert Jensen introduced me and asked if anyone present had read Golitsyn's book, "New Lies for Old." I saw only one person raise his hand. The idea that people today do their homework is a curious misunderstanding. People tend to avoid homework, especially Americans. It is a cultural reality here, and one that extends to Europeans who have left school. Once they are no longer required to read, their reading falls off. 

One also has to consider the fact that people are not very logical or analytical in their views. They largely borrow their opinions from others. Competent analysis is uncommon in everyday life. Add to all this the massive smear campaign launched against CIA counter-intelligence chief Angleton and KGB defector Golitsyn. The media vilification of these men was thorough and steady, especially during the period of Communism's collapse. Tom Mangold's book, "Cold Warrior," is a perfect example of the dishonest approach used. This book and others were accompanied by talk show appearances, radio commentaries and short opinion pieces in major newspapers and magazines. Golitsyn and Angleton were dismissed as a paranoid kooks. While most people did not read Golitsyn's book, nearly everyone with peripheral interest heard or read the negative case brought against Golitsyn's work. 

In this battle for hearts and minds I must remind you of Gustave Le Bon's work, "The Crowd." In terms of processing information, Le Bon does not give the majority of men high marks. And I believe he is entirely correct. 

TM: In 1999, you wrote a very interesting article based on the Russian operation VRYAN entitled "surprise nuclear missile attack part 1&2". Is this assessment still valid, or did the situation change in the meantime?

JRN: In 1999 we saw the Russians deliberately move their entire system toward a nuclear war footing. This movement was sudden, rapid and was accompanied by alarming statements from the Russian Foreign Ministry and General Staff. But they left important moves out of these preparations, so that by mid December 1999 there was no doubt they were running some kind of drill or cover exercise. But in the last two years since that time they have adopted one pre-war move after another, at regular intervals. For example, Putin's 13 May 2000 creation of administrations parallel to the Russian Federation military districts. This was almost identical to a move ordered by Stalin on 13 May 1941. Also, in the autumn of 2000 the Russians reintroduced rudimentary military training for children, and now they are about to reinvigorate their entire civil defense system. Even more ominous, in recent weeks they have begun closing (to foreigners) cities in the interior of Russia. In retrospect I believe the period of late 1999, which coincided with the Chechin War mobilization, was used as cover to accomplish many pre-war moves at one time and to test the U.S. reaction. This preparation was frantic enough to give a pre-war appearance, but the actual timetable is much more long-term. Things are being put in place over a period of years rather than months. Given what they are doing now it appears we are yet years away from the time when they will be fully ready (perhaps between 2004 and 2008). One must also look at the overall correlation of forces in terms of America's determination to rid itself of two thirds of its nuclear weapons, especially the MX "Peacekeeper" ICBMs.

TM: There are rumors, that the russians, as part of preparations for war, are releasing jailed criminals if they obligate for military duty. Can you confirm this information?

JRN: There were announcements from the Kremlin, starting in early March, 1999, that large numbers of prisoners were going to be amnestied in Russia. In April 1999 we learned from Russian figures that nearly 100,000 persons volunteered for military service during the Kosovo crisis, and an additional 169,000 were called up in a draft. This is a curious mobilization, which was repeated on a larger scale in September 1999 after the Dagestan incursion triggered the Chechin War (though the exact figures were kept secret). A similar pattern repeated itself in Kazakhstan in 2000 and the prisoner amnesties were carried forward in Russia as well, so that the gulag population -- so essential for certain industries -- was obviously depleted. Then in 2001 Russian and Korean officials admitted that North Korean prisoners were being sent to Russia's work camps in order to fill up the camps. This is an important piece of news which cries out for an explanation.

While none of this is conclusive, it is very suggestive. First, readers should know that the gulag work camp system was never dismantled in Russia. This would have been too devastating for the economy. And second, the amnesties of 1999 to 2001 exactly mirror amnesties proclaimed by Stalin between 1939 and 1941, when hundreds of thousands of prisoners were shifted into the Second and Third Strategic Echelons of the Red Army. Given Putin's 13 May 2000 order regarding administrative units paralleling the military districts, we find a definite pre-war pattern surprisingly similar to Stalin's pre-war pattern. 

TM: Joseph D. Douglass wrote a book called "Red Cocaine" dealing with Sejna's testimony about communist drug trafficking as a strategic weapon against the West. There were other attempts to destabilize western societies and western military power, for example, the use of anti-war movements. Do you have any information that the leftist movement of 1968 (in German: 68er Bewegung) and feminism in the seventies are direct subversive products of communist secret services, too?

JRN: Yes, there is a definite connection. Russian strategists wanted to break down the morality of Western peoples and destroy their traditional cultures because this would make subversion and penetration operations easier to execute. Col. Stanislav Lunev, the highest ranking defector from the Russian General Staff, surprised me during our 1998 discussion by asking me if I thought America was normally a violent country. I knew enough U.S. history to answer that America was not a violent country by nature, despite all those "Westerns" you see on television. Lunev congratulated me on answering correctly and related how the Soviet General Staff had purposely set out to bribe Hollywood producers and directors to put more sex and violence into American movies and television. 

Regarding feminism and its Marxist methodoloy: There is no doubt that many decadent individuals and programs exist without GRU or KGB support. But the fact the GRU and KGB were willing and eager to support such programs suggests that some cultural figures, movements and ideas may have received clandestine support that assured their success. 

TM: Many European prophecies describe civil wars or conditions very similar to a civil war just before a future Russian attack, particularly in Italy and France. Although the leftist underground is quite calm at the moment, do you think unrest could advisedly be initiated by communist agents on command from Moscow as a prelude to war?

JRN: Analysts should not underestimate the left. Neither should they underestimate the alliances formed with Arab terrorist groups and the environmentalists. The combining of various discontented groups will doubtless produce surprising results across the board. The L.A. riots are a good example
. The communists and their front groups hijacked existing discontent and set up teams with gasoline cans and matches. Trained incendiaries set a lot of buildings on fire in a surprisingly short period of time. Now replicate that kind of situation across an entire country. These were revolutionary acts perpetrated by Marxists. The media ignored the role that communists played in the riots. One must watch this carefully because the left has a strong hold on politically active minority groups. In these groups the communists and their foreign supporters have a powerful weapon for creating pre-war diversions, for tying down troops and masking decapitation strikes against national governments.

T. Mann lives in Europe and is currently working on a book which will include a German language version of the above interview.